Political Thermometer: Major parties in Tamil Nadu have started blowing poll bugle, ready for alliances

What seems to be emerging now is an umbrella coalition led by DMK as the Left parties are yet to explore the possibilities of a Third Front.

With just a year left for the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, alliance formations that usually happen two or three months before the polls have already started to emerge. While the fate of AIADMK depends on the appeal pending on J Jayalalithaa’s disproportionate assets case, DMK faces a tough situation as the outcome in the 2G case is awaited. What seems to be emerging now is an umbrella coalition led by DMK as the Left parties are yet to explore the possibilities of a Third Front.

AIADMK
As the Supreme Court struck down the appointment of Special Public Prosecutor Bhavani Singh and asked the Karnataka High Court, where her appeal in the assets case is being heard, to be vigilant about the “corroding effect of corruption” and the “gravity of the offence” against the accused in this case, AIADMK may not be venturing out for alliances at least till they get the final verdict. But if there are no major surprises in the present equations, Jaya will go alone for the polls.

DMK
Unlike AIADMK that enjoyed a massive support from the people during the last elections, DMK has no such privileges this time. DMK is also seen as a sinking ship as its credibility has been hit due to the 2G scan. Still, the party is hoping for an umbrella coalition, which appears to be possible if Jaya fails in her legal battle. DMK is looking to even rope in the Left, Thol Thirumavalavan’s VCK and G K Vasan’s Tamil Manila Congress. Even Congress chief EVKS Elangovan may opt for an alliance with DMK as he is given the task of reviving the party, which has less than 3 per cent vote share in the state.

PMK
S Ramadoss’s PMK has already announced the CM candidate for the next elections – Anbumani Ramadoss. But compared to any other smaller party in the state, PMK would be the last party that DMK wants to strike a deal with as it may hurt an alliance with VCK, representing Dalits, and MMK, having a sizeable Muslim vote bank. PMK, which represents the powerful OBC caste Vanniyars and accused of anti-Dalit riots in Dharmapuri and other parts of the state, may not be a favourable option for the Left too. Still that 5-6 per cent vote share of PMK makes its presence significant in the state politics and BJP may be a potential taker of this party if the saffron outfit agrees to Anbumani as CM.

CPI, CPM, VCK & TMC
After leaving the alliance with AIADMK, the Left parties had been making calculated moves. Interestingly, Vasan’s TMC was generous in inviting most Left leaders in a recent seminar on secularism, in which CPM politburo member Brinda Karat was the main speaker. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury had also visited Vasan for a closed-door meeting. These meetings triggered discussions of a larger secular front, keeping two major Dravidian parties out. CPI, CPM, TMC, VCK and MMK may be leading the game if the hostile situation of DMK and AIADMK continues even after October 2015.

DMDK
When NDA ally ‘Captain’ Vijayakanth led a delegation of political leaders to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi to give representations on a number of issues related to the state, it was reportedly DMK’s M Karunanidhi who deployed the “invisible” DMDK leader to take the lead role. Karunanidhi was playing with his ego to cajole him as his 6-9 per cent vote share may be a game changer under DMK alliance. As long as BJP does not want to project him as a CM candidate, his party will go to any extend to strike a deal with DMK for a better ministerial prospects, if not a CM post.

Source:: Indian Express