New tech can spot warning signs before extreme events

MIT scientists developed a new algorithm that can predict extreme events that are likely to occur in the real world, by spotting instabilities that may affect climate, aircraft performance or ocean circulation.
Many extreme events – from a rogue wave that rises up from calm waters, to an instability inside a gas turbine, to the sudden extinction of a previously hardy wildlife species seem to occur without warning.
It is nearly impossible to predict when such bursts of instability will strike, particularly in systems with a complex and ever-changing mix of players and pieces.

Scientists at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have devised a framework for identifying key patterns that precede an extreme event. The framework can be applied to a wide range of complicated, multidimensional systems to pick out the warning signs that are most likely to occur in the real world. “Currently there is no method to explain when these extreme events occur,” said Themistoklis Sapsis, associate professor at MIT.

“We have applied this framework to turbulent fluid flows, which are the Holy Grail of extreme events. They’re encountered in climate dynamics in the form of extreme rainfall, in engineering fluid flows such as stresses around an airfoil, and acoustic instabilities …read more